Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Malaysia
  • Malta
  • Estonia
  • Denmark

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,220$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(703 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,359.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,359.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $113$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(31 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(106.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $897$ on 2020-07-06

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,315$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,769.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,769.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,965$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(629 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,925.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,925.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,050$ on 2020-07-06

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $241,819$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(7.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,522.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,522.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,869$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(9.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,913.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,913.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,709$ on 2020-07-06

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,936,077$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.22 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,859,701.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 71.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,859,701.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $130,285$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,723.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123,723.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,881,644$ on 2020-07-06

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $287,290$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(5.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,670.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(278,670.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,321$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(9.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,243.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(42,243.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $241,594$ on 2020-07-06

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,061$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(4.62 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,783.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.8)}}\) (asimptote \(101,783.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,433$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(956 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,260.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,260.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67,628$ on 2020-07-06

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $198,064$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(6.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,635.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(184,635.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,022$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,738.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,738.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,882$ on 2020-07-06

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 97%
Malta recovered 97%
Estonia recovered 96%
Denmark recovered 91%
Germany recovered 91%
Italy recovered 86%
Sri Lanka recovered 84%
Qatar recovered 82%
Singapore recovered 80%
Lithuania recovered 79%
Turkey recovered 77%
Hungary recovered 64%
Chile recovered 53%
Belarus recovered 52%
Afghanistan recovered 40%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 30%
Poland recovered 26%
Canada recovered 22%
Iran recovered 22%
Bahrain recovered 21%
Haiti recovered 13%
Nepal recovered 12%
Peru recovered 10%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,668$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,370.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 42.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,370.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(61.2 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 18.1)}}\) (asimptote \(117.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-07-06

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $672$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(199 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{648.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(648.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-07-06

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-07-06

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,994$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(688 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,895.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,895.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(28.7 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 24.3)}}\) (asimptote \(68.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-07-06

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,079$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(3.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,483.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,483.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $607$ on 2020-07-06

Best fit exponential: \(200 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{590.2}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(590.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $337$ on 2020-07-06