Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,220$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(703 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,359.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,359.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $113$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(31 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(106.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $897$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $32,315$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,769.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,769.3\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,965$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(629 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,925.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,925.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,050$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,819$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(7.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,522.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(234,522.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,869$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(9.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,913.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,913.7\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,709$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,936,077$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(3.22 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,859,701.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 71.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,859,701.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $130,285$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,723.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.1)}}\) (asimptote \(123,723.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,881,644$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $287,290$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(5.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{278,670.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(278,670.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,321$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(9.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,243.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(42,243.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $241,594$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $73,061$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(4.62 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,783.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.8)}}\) (asimptote \(101,783.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,433$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(956 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,260.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,260.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $67,628$ on 2020-07-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $198,064$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(6.23 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184,635.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(184,635.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,022$ on 2020-07-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,738.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,738.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,882$ on 2020-07-06